Overview:

            Humans are causing extreme weather and climate change, scientists have definitively declared: "We can no longer be shy about talking about the connection between human causes of climate change and weather," warns Jeff Rosenfeld, editor-in-chief of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS).The latest annual edition of BAMS concludes that three major climate events in 2016 were the direct result of human activity: the heat wave in Asia, the combined record global temperatures and the increase in ocean temperatures. The rise in ocean temperatures off the Alaskan coast, says the study's lead scientist, Eric Oliver, was intensified "up to fifty times more" by human activity.

Extreme Heat

          Temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the average high temperature for the region and last for several weeks are defined as extreme heat. Humid or muggy conditions, which add to the discomfort of high temperatures, occur when a ‘dome’ of high atmospheric pressure traps hazy, damp air near the ground. Excessively dry and hot conditions can provoke dust storms and low visibility. Droughts occur when a long period passes without substantial rainfall. A heat wave combined with a drought is a very dangerous situation.

Extreme Cold

        Although no specific definition exists for Extreme Cold, the following are characteristics of an Extreme Cold event: Temperatures at or below freezing for an extended period of time, for Northern States temperatures at or below zero degrees for an extended period of time. Note that Extreme Cold events are usually part of Winter Storm events but can occur during any time of the year and have devastating effects on New York State agricultural production.

The probability for future events​

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         The likelihood or future probability of occurrence of excessive summer heat in the GBRA region is occasional, with an event possible in the next five years. Extreme drought conditions and above-average temperatures for 2009 have affected all of the participating jurisdictions’ probability of experiencing an extreme heat event; secondary impacts as well. In the past, multiple counties throughout the region have issued burn bans to prevent the occurrence of wildfires due to extreme heat and dry conditions.